I almost made it through February without talking about the NCAA Tournament bubble. Almost. Part of that is probably because Maryland isn't sniffing the Big Dance. But with the regular season dwindling down, let's take a look at who's shopping for dancing shoes and who's shopping for a comfy couch to watch March Madness on.
ACCWho's in: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia
Who's in the discussion: NC State, Miami (FL)
Analysis: If the season ended today, NC State would probably miss the cut. The Wolfpack have dropped four straight. Winning out gets NC State to 20 wins and 9-7 in conference play. Picking up another win in the ACC Tournament might push them back onto the right side of the bubble. That's the same story for Miami. Unfortunately, both teams play each other next.
BIG EASTWho's in: Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame
Who's in the discussion: Connecticut, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, South Florida
Analysis: If the season ended today, everyone but South Florida would likely make the cut. Those on the "Who's in" list are locks, but the next two regular season games will make or break it for everyone else. It's been downright amazing to see Connecticut go from winning last year's National Championship to going 5-9 in the last 14 games to find itself on the bubble.
BIG TENWho's in: Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Who's in the discussion: Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois
Analysis: Purdue would make the cut if the season ended today. But losing out would put the Boilermakers on the wrong side of the bubble. Northwestern has a stout strength of schedule and a fine RPI, but a losing record in Big Ten play. Illinois has two top five wins but has lost nine of its last 11 games, and needs to improve its standing to go dancing.
BIG 12Who's in: Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
Who's in the discussion: Texas
Analysis: Texas is the lone bubble team in the Big 12 as of today, with Iowa State and Kansas State comfortably in. Losing out would put both teams in bubble territory. But Texas is a mystery, with an impressive RPI and strength of schedule... and a mediocre 17-11 (7-8 Big 12) record. The Longhorns are one of the bubbliest teams out there, and need some help in the way of wins before Selection Sunday.
PAC-12Who's in: Cal, Washington
Who's in the discussion: Arizona, Oregon
Analysis: Someone has to win the Pac-12, and it'll probably be one of these four teams. Cal and Washington have moved the Pac-12 into two-bid territory, while Arizona is just
barely sneaking in if the NCAA Tournament started today. Oregon is on the outside looking in, with no wins over ranked teams, and will need to improve its standing to get in.
SECWho's in: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Who's in the discussion: Alabama, Mississippi State
Analysis: Vanderbilt is in... for now. If the Commodores really crap the proverbial bed, they may be sweating it out on Sunday. But they're in better shape than Alabama and Mississippi State, both of which need some resume boosters. Alabama needs to win its last two games to get off the bubble, while Mississippi State needs to win out
and make a splash in the SEC Tournament. Losing five straight in late February is a death sentence otherwise.
THE RESTWho's in: Wichita State, Temple, UNLV, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Creighton, San Diego State, St. Mary's, St. Louis, Memphis, Southern Miss, BYU,
Who's in the discussion: Xavier, Colorado State, Murray State, Harvard, St. Joe's, Dayton, Central Florida
Analysis: It's been a good year for mid- and low-major teams. And while a few teams in the A-10 still have to improve on their resumes a bit, Murray State and Harvard both worked their way into the top 25 this season, but if Murray State doesn't win the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament or Harvard doesn't win the Ivy League regular season, both would have strong cases for an at-large bid.